Year-End Bitcoin Bets Lean Toward Lower Prices, Kalshi Traders Favor Range
Bitcoin.com reports that prediction-market traders expect Bitcoin to end 2026 near lower levels, while live data shows the asset broadly unchanged over 24 hours but down over the past week.
Bitcoin.com reports that prediction-market traders expect Bitcoin to end 2026 near lower levels, while live data shows the asset broadly unchanged over 24 hours but down over the past week. Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $75,695.00. This is an original TLT brief based on reporting by Bitcoin.com, with live market data added, as of Sat, 07 Nov 2026 19:45:03 UTC.
The divergent year-end scenarios highlight how traders are positioning around Bitcoin despite subdued recent momentum. Prediction-market liquidity and shifts in the odds may provide a gauge of changing sentiment as the year closes.
- Polymarket assigns 52% odds to Bitcoin falling to $70,000
- Only 9% of Polymarket odds favor a $100,000 rise
- Kalshi expectations center on $70,000-$80,000
- Bitcoin trades at $75,751, down 2.43% over seven days
- Phantom Wallet Integrates Kalshi Event Markets for US Crypto Traders
- Year-End Bitcoin Bets Lean Toward Lower Prices, Kalshi Traders Favor Range — this brief
Bitcoin.com reports that Polymarket traders assigned a 52% probability to Bitcoin retreating to $70,000 before January, while only 9% favored a return to $100,000. Kalshi participants placed their year-end expectations mainly within a $70,000-to-$80,000 range. The figures were observed as of noon Eastern time on Saturday, Nov. 7, 2026.
The trading bands straddle Bitcoin’s current price, with the reported Kalshi range encompassing both downside and modest upside levels relative to the live quote. Bitcoin was trading at $75,751, up 0.07% over 24 hours but down 2.43% over seven days, placing it near the middle of the year-end range cited by Kalshi traders.
Bitcoin.com is the sole outlet covering the story, so there is no independent outlet corroboration or conflicting figure to compare. However, DeFiLlama reports $322.94 million in total value locked on Polymarket, down 11.3% over seven days, providing a measure of the prediction market’s current activity and recent contraction.
The broader crypto market was flat, with total capitalization at $2.61 trillion. The Fear and Greed Index stood at 25, labeling conditions as extreme fear. The market context to watch is whether Bitcoin remains near its current $75,751 level, whether its seven-day decline continues, and whether Polymarket’s odds or Kalshi’s concentrated range change as year-end approaches.
Since this brief published about 2 hours ago, Bitcoin (BTC) has moved from $75,751.00 to $75,695.00 — -0.07%.
The chart plots BTC's price: grey is the move before this brief published, the vertical dashed line marks the moment it published, the horizontal dashed line is the price then, and the coloured area is the move since — from TLT's market data (daily resolution). It shows what happened after the news, not that the news caused it; many factors move prices. Not financial advice.
At today's peer-to-peer rate, 1 BTC ≈ ₦104.37M (about $75,695.00), down 0.0% over 24 hours. The naira itself trades about 2.3% above the official rate on the P2P market, so a Nigerian buyer's effective cost differs from the headline dollar price.
Live market data
Current prices for the assets in this story — live, source-stamped, updated every 15 minutes.
Figures and sectors in this story, checked live against on-chain aggregators · November 7, 2026.
TLT reads these figures directly from on-chain aggregators (DeFiLlama, mempool.space) at build time — independent of what any outlet reported. Sector totals aggregate every protocol DeFiLlama tracks in that category. Values are live and will change.
Year-End Bitcoin Bets Lean Toward Lower Prices, Kalshi Trade — questions & answers
What odds did Polymarket assign to a $70,000 Bitcoin retreat?
Bitcoin.com reported a 52% probability of Bitcoin falling to $70,000 before January, compared with 9% odds of a $100,000 comeback.
Where did Kalshi traders expect year-end Bitcoin to trade?
Kalshi participants centered their year-end expectations around a $70,000-to-$80,000 range.
How much value was locked on Polymarket?
DeFiLlama reported $322.94 million in Polymarket TVL, down 11.3% over seven days.
How much is 1 Bitcoin worth in naira today?
About ₦104.37M at the live peer-to-peer (P2P) USDT rate, which is what Nigerians typically trade at — equivalent to roughly $75,695.00. The naira price moves with both BTC's US-dollar price and the USDT/NGN rate; use our Bitcoin in naira page for any amount.
Has Bitcoin's price moved since this brief was published?
BTC is down 0.07% since this brief first published — trading at $75,695.00 now versus $75,751.00 at publication. TLT re-checks this figure against CoinGecko and Binance every 15 minutes.
Which outlets reported this story?
This is an original TLT brief that synthesises reporting from Bitcoin.com. It is not a copy of any one article — follow the source links above for the original reporting.
Original summary — not financial advice. This is an original TLT brief that summarises a development reported elsewhere and adds live market data for context; it is not the original article and reproduces no part of it. Follow the source link above for full details. Crypto is volatile and high-risk — always do your own research.