SCHD Stock Analysis: Dividend ETF Yield and Long Term Outlook

SCHD offers a compelling blend of income and growth. As of early 2026, its dividend yield ranges between about 3.3% and 3.8%, making it a solid choice for income-focused investors. Beyond the yield, SCHD stands out with low costs and a strong track record of dividend increases that supports long-term growth prospects.

SCHD Dividend Yield: What’s Real?

SCHD’s current yield isn’t uniform across sources, leading to some confusion:

• A leading financial platform reports a trailing 12-month (TTM) yield of 3.33%, with a payout of approximately $1.05 per share .
• Another ETF tracker notes a forward-looking yield of 3.85%, underscoring forward dividend expectations .
• Research from late 2025 reinforces these figures, citing SEC yields of roughly 3.8% and TTM yields near 3.7–3.9% .

The slight differences stem from the varied time frames and calculation methodologies. Still, they consistently place SCHD yield in a high-quality, mid‑3% range.

Track Record: Dividend Growth That Lasts

SCHD’s dividend growth history shows both resilience and consistency:

• It has notched a 14-year streak of annual dividend increases by 2025, underlining its stability .
• According to one tracker, SCHD’s 10-year dividend CAGR is around 12.4%, reinforcing its long-term growth potential .
• While growth dipped year-over-year in 2025 (e.g., −57% or −57.35% depending on sources), that’s largely due to base effects, not a structural weakness .
• In Q1 2025, the fund posted a healthy 22% YoY dividend increase, though partially boosted by favorable comparisons .

This reveals that SCHD prioritizes steady, sustainable growth, not gimmicky spikes.

Valuation & Operating Efficiency

SCHD delivers more than dividends. It’s also lean:

• The expense ratio of just 0.06% makes it one of the most cost-efficient options in its class .
• Valuation stands out — its P/E ratio near 16–17× and P/B ratio between 1.5× to ~3× are both materially lower than the S&P 500 average .

So, SCHD isn’t just offering attractive payouts—it’s also priced sensibly compared to broader indexes.

Sector Mix: How SCHD Stands Apart

SCHD’s sector allocations bolster both yield and defensiveness:

• In early 2026, it had under 10% exposure to tech, much lower than peers like VIG or VYM .
• Meanwhile, energy, healthcare, and consumer staples carry heavy weights, contributing to steady cash flows .
• In late 2024 or early 2025, energy exposure rose sharply to ~21%, driven by favoured energy players like ConocoPhillips (around 4.7%) .

This defensive tilt has allowed SCHD to outperform during pullbacks in growth sectors, helping buffer volatility.

Historical Returns & Momentum

Performance in recent months — and years — is noteworthy:

• From Nov 2025 to early Feb 2026, SCHD delivered about 17.5% total return, significantly beating the broader S&P 500 and growth-focused benchmarks .
• SCHD’s 1-year annualized return reached nearly +17.8% at the start of 2026, with 3‑ and 5‑year annualized figures around 11%, and 10‑year returns near 13.6% .
• Even after a relative dip in 2025, its long-term annualized returns remain strong: ~11–11.4% over 10 years, ~9.5% over 5 years .

These figures illustrate that SCHD isn’t just a defensive income play—it’s a long-term wealth-builder.

Reasons for Caution: Real Risks to Weigh

Yet, no fund is perfect. Analysts and critics raise these points:

• Some see SCHD’s 3.8% yield as less appealing if risk-free rates remain elevated, such as from expected Fed cuts in 2026 .
• Its overweight in energy could backfire if sector-specific headwinds intensify .
• Despite technical robustness, broader macro uncertainty or growth factor rotations may shave returns .

In short, while SCHD is stable, investors should keep an eye on interest rates and sector-specific shifts.

Expert Insight

“SCHD’s blend of reasonable valuation, solid yield, and a long history of dividend growth makes it a standout for conservative income investors.”

Even with a few bumps, that sums up why SCHD remains widely respected in the ETF world.

Bottom Line: Outlook for Income & Long-Term Growth

SCHD stands out as a rare combination of yield, growth, and value. Its mid‑3% yield, years of rising dividends, and low costs make it attractive to investors chasing income without sacrificing safety.

With low exposure to volatile sectors and heavy weighting in defensive industries, SCHD is well positioned in uncertain markets. Its long-term performance further cements its suitability as a core income holding.

That said, close eye on interest rate trends and energy price dynamics is crucial. A potential Fed pivot or energy downturn could impact the fund. Overall, though, it’s a strategically sound, thoughtfully constructed ETF for income and resilience.

FAQs

How much yield does SCHD currently offer?

SCHD offers a yield of roughly 3.3% to 3.8%, depending on whether you reference trailing 12-month or forward-looking estimates.

Has SCHD consistently increased its dividends?

Yes—SCHD has raised its dividend for 14 consecutive years as of 2025, with long-term growth rates among the strongest in its peer group.

What about SCHD’s valuation—expensive or cheap?

Valuation metrics show SCHD is attractively priced. Its P/E (around 16–17×) and P/B (1.5x to ~3x) are both lower compared to the broader S&P 500.

Is the sector mix a strength or a risk?

Its low tech weight and high exposure to energy, healthcare, and staples offer defensiveness—but heavy energy exposure can be a risk if that sector falters.

How has SCHD performed over time?

Performance is compelling. Year-to-date returns in early 2026 exceeded 17%, and long-term annualized returns range from 11% to 13%, depending on timeframe.

What are the main risks to monitor?

Watch interest rate movements and performance in energy sectors. Elevated rates could make other income options more attractive, and energy is inherently volatile.