Moderna (MRNA) stock sentiment is cautiously optimistic heading into the February 13, 2026 earnings release, with analysts watching closely whether the company’s robust cost-cutting and pipeline progress can offset reliance on waning COVID vaccine demand. Recent price targets range roughly from $24 to $70, reflecting divided expectations amid transitional headwinds.
Current Stock Snapshot and Analyst Sentiment
Moderna currently trades around $41.95 as of February 10, 2026 citeturn0finance0.
Analyst expectations are split:
- UBS maintains a Buy rating with an average one-year target of $47.37, implying about an 80% upside .
- In contrast, Bank of America (BofA) holds an Underperform stance, targeting about $24, citing over-reliance on COVID-related revenue and uncertainty across its broader pipeline .
Other projections:
– Piper Sandler adjusts its price target to $63, despite tone and outlook lingering in the “Overweight” zone .
– Earlier targets have ranged from a cautious $15–$70, depending on analyst and timeline .
Earnings Preview: What to Expect on February 13, 2026
Moderna’s Q3 2025 earnings (reported November 6) beat expectations by a wide margin—EPS at –$0.51, beating estimates by over $1.60, and revenue of about $1.02 billion outperformed forecasts . Cost reductions also made headlines: a 34% cut in operating expenses, a $2.1 billion improvement year-over-year, and a narrowed 2025 revenue guidance of $1.6 billion to $2.0 billion .
The upcoming Q4 results, expected February 13, carry similar expectations. Zacks projects revenue around $661 million and a loss per share near –$2.60, still optimistic given the recent beat trend .
Success hinges on whether Moderna can prove Vanguard momentum beyond COVID, including:
- Uptake of mNEXSPIKE, now accounting for ~55% of U.S. COVID volume and pushing U.S. market share to ~42% .
- Pipeline advancement in RSV (mRESVIA), flu combo (mRNA‑1010), and oncology (INT/messenger RNA 4157 with Merck) .
- Cost discipline continuity and stable cash—Moderna projects year-end 2025 cash between $6.5B–$7.0B, with long-term break-even pushed to 2028 .
Key Drivers and Risks Shaping Price Outlook
Key Catalysts
- Pipeline traction: Encouraging Phase III data in cancer therapy (INT with Merck) and flu vaccine mRNA‑1010 may boost confidence .
- Cost efficiency: $2 billion in expense cuts and improved margin visibility are helping shore up investor faith .
- New product approvals: Broad regulatory greenlights for Spikevax, mNEXSPIKE, and mRESVIA across multiple territories expand commercial runway .
Risks to Monitor
- COVID dependency: Wall Street’s skepticism remains; certain analysts believe Moderna hasn’t diversified enough beyond COVID revenue .
- Revenue uncertainty: Despite better-than-feared Q3 numbers, full-year forecasts remain modest—raising concerns about sustainability .
- Analyst divergence: Wide range of price targets reflects split sentiment—from cautious (BofA $24) to bullish (UBS $47), leaving investors divided .
Scenarios: What Could Happen Post-Earnings
| Scenario | Outcome |
|——————————–|————————————————————————-|
| Bullish surprise | Beats on revenue and guidance; pipeline updates elevate target to $50+ |
| Modest beat, cautious tone | Maintains around $45–$50 range; confidence builds slowly |
| Neutral miss | Matches low-end forecasts; stock drifts or low-$40s zone |
| Disappointment | Dampened guidance or muted pipeline; stock potentially drops toward low $30s |
Conclusion
Moderna’s post-earnings trajectory hangs on execution beyond its COVID legacy. Solid cost control and pipeline momentum could underwrite a move toward $50+ if managed well. But if reliance on legacy vaccines and unclear guidance persists, downside toward the $30–$40 range is likely.
Next Steps for Investors:
- Listen closely to Mgmt commentary on RSV and cancer trial progress.
- Track 2025 revenue outlook adjustments and assumptions.
- Monitor analyst revisions post-earnings—whether the pricing gap narrows or widens.
FAQs
1. What price range are analysts targeting for Moderna now?
Analyst targets vary widely—UBS projects around $47, Piper Sandler sees ~$63, while cautious estimates like BofA are near $24, showcasing a broad spectrum of viewpoints.
2. How did Moderna perform in its most recent quarter?
In Q3 2025 (Nov 6), Moderna beat expectations with an EPS of –$0.51 (vs. –$2.15 estimate) and ~$1.02 billion in revenue. It also narrowed full-year revenue guidance and continued aggressive cost cuts.
3. What’s the significance of February 13, 2026?
That’s the scheduled date for Moderna’s Q4 2025 earnings release—an event expected to significantly influence stock direction based on guidance and cost/pipeline updates.
4. What are the main concerns analysts have about Moderna?
Most worry that Moderna remains too dependent on COVID vaccine revenue amid slow diversification, especially in RSV and CMV programs. They’re skeptical about long-term growth without stronger pipeline traction.
5. Could Moderna reach profitability soon?
Moderna projects operating cash break-even by 2028, supported by expense reductions and new products. Short-term profits remain unlikely, though better-than-expected execution could narrow losses.
6. What should investors focus on post-earnings?
Listen for clarity on 2026 revenue growth, pipeline catalysts (especially oncology and flu combo), R&D spend, and updated cash guidance. These will steer sentiment and future targets.