MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) continues to dominate headlines by doubling down on one of the boldest Bitcoin accumulation plays in corporate America. With its treasury now holding over 712,000 BTC—valued in the tens of billions—the company’s fortunes are tightly tethered to the crypto market’s fortunes. The critical question: amid high volatility and mounting financial obligations, does MSTR stock still offer a compelling opportunity—or is it a perilous plunge into digital asset risk?
The Current Landscape: Price, Holdings, and Debt
As of early 2026, MicroStrategy holds approximately 714,644 BTC, acquired at an average cost near $76,056 per coin. These holdings carry a total acquisition cost of roughly $54.35 billion. At prevailing Bitcoin prices, that translates to a market value of about $49.6 billion—placing MicroStrategy at a paper loss of nearly $4.8 billion.
The company’s reliance on capital markets remains intense. Throughout 2025, MicroStrategy raised over $20 billion via ATM equity programs and $5.6 billion through preferred stock issuances to fund Bitcoin purchases. This aggressive strategy underpins its narrative of “Bitcoin per share” growth but also fuels concerns over dilution and long-term cash obligations.
The burden of financing these purchases looms large. As of Q3 2025, MicroStrategy carried $8.24 billion in debt and $6.59 billion in preferred stock notional value. These carry annual fixed costs exceeding $673 million in debt and dividend obligations—and the software business lacks the cash generation to cover them.
Why the Stock Trades Below NAV
Despite its massive BTC reserves, MSTR has declined sharply—slumping approximately 60% over the past 12 months. This drop has pushed the stock’s market capitalization below the net asset value of its Bitcoin holdings.
But this isn’t a discount born of ignorance. The volatility stems from substantial unrealized losses—$17.44 billion just in Q4 2025—and the financial mechanics of marking assets to market. In effect, MSTR behaves less like a traditional tech stock and more like a leveraged crypto instrument.
Adding to investor anxiety, correlations between MSTR stock and Bitcoin recently hit 0.98, signaling intense sensitivity to crypto price swings. Amid this backdrop, some analysts have trimmed price targets, citing Bitcoin’s weakness as a key risk.
Yet—even with mounting losses—MicroStrategy continues to accumulate Bitcoin. Most recently, the company purchased an additional 2,486 BTC, spending $168 million and raising capital through both common and preferred stock issuance. This raised its holdings to around 717,131 BTC. The act seems to reinforce a long-term conviction that any near-term pain may yield a strategic advantage.
Is MSTR Still a “Buy”?
Arguments in Favor:
- NAV Discount: With the stock trading below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, bargain hunters may see upside potential if crypto markets recover.
- Aggressive Dollar-Cost Averaging: MicroStrategy’s consistent accumulation—especially during downturns—could benefit shareholders if Bitcoin rebounds.
- Capital Access Still Open: The company continues to tap markets for funding, suggesting no liquidity crisis—yet.
Risks to Consider:
- Earnings Volatility: Mark-to-market accounting creates wild swings that make financials unpredictable.
- Heavy Leverage and Cash Costs: With nearly $700 million in annual fixed charges and limited operating cash flow, capital markets access is critical to staying afloat. A crypto downturn could escalate stress quickly.
- Potential Dilution: Continued equity and preferred issuances dilute existing shareholders and increase obligations.
- Index Risk: While MSCI didn’t drop MSTR from some indexes, further reviews could hurt passive investment inflows.
- Crypto Exposure Risks: Analysts warn MSTR offers no Bitcoin utility and remains vulnerable to crypto market sentiment.
What’s Next: What Investors Are Watching
- Bitcoin Price Action: A rally could dramatically inflate the NAV and buoy the stock. Conversely, deeper declines would intensify financial strain.
- Capital Market Activity: Further ATM or debt offerings would provide operational runway—but at the cost of more shares and obligations.
- Unrealized Loss Trends: Continued BTC volatility means earnings reports will remain volatile. Investors will be watching for stabilization.
- Regulatory or Tax Shifts: Any changes affecting crypto earnings treatment or index inclusion could move stock materially.
- Macro Sentiment: Broader crypto investor sentiment, institutional interest, and risk appetite will weigh heavily on MSTR.
Ultimately, MicroStrategy stock remains one of the most polarizing investment plays in modern markets. It offers a novel “leveraged Bitcoin proxy” for investors—but with steep risks and corporate complexity. A disciplined risk appetite, strong belief in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory, and confidence in MicroStrategy’s execution are essential.
For those who see Bitcoin surging again and trust MicroStrategy’s ability to execute, the NAV discount may represent an opportunity. But for risk-averse investors, the intricate financial structure and looming obligations likely outweigh the attraction.
Only the coming weeks and quarters will show whether MSTR’s bold Bitcoin bet pays off—or if the volatility proves too steep for most shareholders.