Hedera’s native token, HBAR, trades near $0.098 as of today, February 20, 2026, marking the lowest recent levels yet a potential turning point may be forming. Network metrics and enterprise traction suggest strengthening fundamentals. Technical patterns and growing institutional interest highlight possible upside, while structural constraints and macro volatility temper expectations.
Why This Matters Now
HBAR’s recent stagnation around $0.10 underscores a quiet phase in price action. Meanwhile, Hedera expands its enterprise footprint and ecosystem capabilities. This juncture matters because it could signal a shift—either setting the stage for gradual appreciation or confirming a prolonged consolidation phase.
Current Price Snapshot
HBAR is trading at approximately $0.0983, down modestly from the prior session. Intraday range sits between ~$0.0962 and ~$0.0995, indicating subdued volatility.citeturn0finance0
This rectangular price action aligns with a broader sideways trend observed since late 2025, suggesting traders may be waiting for new catalysts before committing.
Strengthening Fundamentals
Enterprise adoption is gaining traction. In December 2025, energy giant Repsol joined the Hedera Governing Council to pilot decentralized identity solutions for millions of customers. Hedera’s council already includes tech titans like Google, IBM, and Boeing.
On-chain adoption metrics are improving too. Q3 2025 saw daily active wallets rise nearly 190% year-over-year to over 2,000, with daily transactions hitting 2.7 million. Smart-contract volume reached $3.7 billion, supported by increased activity in NFTs, DeFi, and real-world asset tokenization.
These developments elevate Hedera’s institutional credibility and usage, laying groundwork for gradual demand growth.
Technical Outlook & Price Forecasts
Near-Term Technical Setup
HBAR held flat between $0.10–$0.14 throughout 2025, despite macro crypto turbulence. Algorithmic models suggest a mean forecast of around $0.18 in 2026, with upside toward $0.20. Key resistance lies in the $0.25–$0.35 range, where past breakout zones may form.
Patterns and Analyst Targets
- In mid‑2025, technical breakout from a descending channel flagged upside toward $0.30–$0.42.
- Analysts have projected price targets as high as $1 if structural momentum strengthens.
- Coingape forecasted a potential 90% rally given taker-buy dominance and ETF tailwinds, targeting $0.40.
- Earlier in 2025, AI-generated projections speculated a nearly 200% rise, reaching $0.57.
Still, most models expect incremental growth, not sudden parabolic rallies.
Risks and Constraints
Despite enterprise traction, HBAR faces headwinds:
- The highly structured governing council limits decentralization, raising questions about long-term developer and community adoption.
- Ongoing vesting schedules may increase supply inflation, potentially weighing on price during weak demand periods.
- Macro volatility and limited liquidity could stall rallies unless matched by transactional growth or institutional inflows.
What’s Next for the Market
Traders and investors are watching for several key developments:
- Price action: A sustained move above the $0.12–$0.14 zone could validate a breakout. Next clear resistance lies in the $0.25–$0.35 range.
- On‑chain growth: Continued expansion of dApp activity, stablecoin use, and tokenized assets would support valuation.
- Institutional signals: New council members, ETF filings, or major partnerships could act as catalysts.
- Regulatory clarity: Establishing token classification as commodity could boost institutional confidence.
Conclusion
HBAR hovers near $0.10 today in a prolonged consolidation. The network’s enterprise partnerships and increasing usage offer a foundation for gradual recovery. While technical setups hint at upside, the path to $0.20–$0.35 remains conditioned on adoption and market sentiment. Over the medium term, HBAR could rise 50–100% if fundamentals deliver—but investors should remain cautious of volatility and structural limitations.
This remains early innings. What unfolds next hinges on whether Hedera transforms enterprise interest into real transactional demand and whether investor confidence fuels broader participation.