First Solar Stock Analysis Price Trends Earnings and Forecast

First Solar (FSLR) stock recently closed at approximately $222.13 after jumping about 1.55% on February 9, 2026, though it still remains over 22% below its 52-week high of $285.99 set in December 2025.

Market Movement & Recent Price Trends

First Solar has shown notable volatility recently. On February 6, 2026, the stock dropped sharply by 6.67%, closing around $218.73, amidst an overall bullish market environment. Despite this dip, the bounce on February 9 reflects short-term resilience, though the stock remains significantly below its recent high.

Over the past year, FSLR has gained around 43.2%, outperforming the broader S&P 500 (up about 14%) —but its year-to-date (YTD) performance reveals an 8.9% decline, trailing the S&P’s modest gains.

Earnings Performance & Financial Overview

Earnings have been a mixed bag. Q3 2025 results delivered $4.24 EPS, missing forecasts by $0.08, though revenue was solid at $1.59 billion, slightly beating expectations.

Q1 and Q2 2025 brought further surprises: Q1 missed by a wide margin ($1.95 vs. $2.50 expected), and Q4 2024 also missed EPS estimates with $3.65 earnings.

Looking ahead:

• For full-year 2025, analysts expect EPS growth of ~21.7% (to around $14.63), followed by a stronger 58.8% growth in 2026 (to ~$23.23).
• MarketBeat data forecasts earnings growth from $13.05 to $20.37 per share, reflecting ~56% upside.

Sales projections are equally optimistic. The company guided for net sales between $5.3 billion and $5.8 billion for 2025, with 18–20 GW of modules expected to be sold, and capex of $1.3–$1.5 billion for expansion and R&D.

Roth Capital sees Q1 2026 EPS at $4.04, raising full-year 2026 EPS to $23.41, and even projecting $31.83 by 2029. Seaport’s forecast is similar, expecting Q1 2026 EPS at $4.37, and full-year 2026 EPS at $24.25, rising to $29.65 in 2027.

Analyst Sentiment & Price Targets

Wall Street sentiment remains positive. Based on nearly a dozen estimates:

• Morgan Stanley: $275 (Buy)
• BMO Capital: $263 (Hold, downgraded)
• KeyBanc: $150 (Sell)
• Bank of America: $271 (Buy)
• RBC: $258 (Buy)
• Barclays: $279 (Buy)
• Guggenheim: $312 (Buy)
• UBS: $330 (Buy)
• Deutsche Bank: $300 (Buy)
• Mizuho: $335 (Buy)

These diverse outlooks suggest an average price target of $274.83, implying nearly 15.5% upside from current levels.

On Barchart, among 33 analysts covering FSLR, the consensus rating is a Moderate Buy. Meanwhile, Nasdaq reports a dominant Strong Buy consensus (27 Strong Buys, 2 Moderate Buys, 5 Holds), with an analyst average target of $238.22, suggesting around 82% upside.

Technical & Market Position Indicators

First Solar’s technical indicators show strength. Its Relative Strength (RS) Rating climbed to 92, a sign of leadership and strong price action among peers. The stock is currently extended beyond its buy range, having cleared a cup-with-handle pattern. Some investors may look for a three-weeks tight or pullback to key moving averages as new entries.

Strategic Context & Industry Dynamics

Several external trends bolster First Solar’s strategic position:

• Solar tariffs on Chinese imports favor domestic manufacturers like First Solar.
• Recovery in solar incentives, such as those embedded in the Inflation Reduction Act, benefited the company.
• UBS identified First Solar as a potential beneficiary of rising AI-powered data center energy demand, projecting EPS could climb to around $37 by 2027.

“In our view, FSLR is an overlooked, direct beneficiary of increasing AI‑driven electricity demand.”

That angle connects the solar pivot to booming AI infrastructure needs—and it’s not just speculative; it’s a compelling narrative.

Conclusion

First Solar stock trades in a volatile but structurally favorable environment. Recent price dips are tempered by strong long-term upside narratives—robust analyst forecasts, solid revenue and earnings guidance, and technical momentum all align.

With analysts targeting between $238 and $335, upside ranges from mid-teens into 50% territory. Upcoming earnings results (notably Q4 2025 on February 24, 2026) will be key catalysts, especially with strong EPS growth expected through 2026 and beyond.

Investors may find value in FSLR’s domestic manufacturing strength, technological edge, and ability to capitalize on policy tailwinds and AI‑driven demand.

FAQs

Q: What is First Solar’s current stock price (approx.)?
A: The stock recently traded around $222, after a 1.55% gain on February 9, 2026.

Q: How have recent earnings reports impacted outlook?
A: Recent quarters have mixed results—Q3 and Q1 missed expectations—but full-year guidance and growth projections remain strong.

Q: What range of price targets do analysts project?
A: Targets vary widely—from as low as $150 up to $335, with average targets around $275.

Q: Are there external catalysts supporting the stock?
A: Yes. Domestic tariffs, U.S.-based manufacturing, solar incentives, and increasing AI-powered energy demand all support First Solar’s growth case.