As February unfolds, Ethereum finds itself at a crossroads. Forecasts for ETH range from a cautious $2,100 to an optimistic $3,400, while Bitcoin holds steady near $68,000. Investors are asking: can Ethereum outpace Bitcoin this month, or will macro headwinds and technical resistance keep it grounded?
Background: Ethereum’s Recent Performance and Market Context
Ethereum has endured a steep correction, falling nearly 50% from its highs above $4,000 to trade near $2,050 in mid-February . Bitcoin, by contrast, has shown relative resilience, hovering around $68,000 . The broader crypto market remains fragile, buffeted by macroeconomic uncertainty and risk-off sentiment. On February 24, Ethereum dipped 0.7% as Bitcoin slipped below $65,000 amid fears sparked by a viral AI-driven economic disruption report .
Forecasts: A Wide Spectrum of Predictions
Bullish Scenarios
CoinCodex projects Ethereum could climb to $2,685.26 by February 6—a 10.6% gain from current levels . Changelly’s model offers a slightly higher outlook, forecasting an average February price of $2,747.97, with a range between $2,614 and $2,776 . Meanwhile, ChatGPT’s base-case scenario sees ETH reaching $3,400 by February 1, though it also outlines a bullish breakout above $4,000 if key resistance is breached .
Bearish and Cautious Views
Not all models are optimistic. ChatGPT’s bearish scenario suggests ETH could fall toward $2,400 if sentiment weakens . CCN reports that both ChatGPT and Claude models anticipate downside pressure, with ChatGPT projecting $2,100 and Claude leaning even more bearish .
Technical Levels to Watch
BeInCrypto highlights critical technical thresholds: support lies near $2,690, while resistance clusters at $3,000, $3,340, and $3,520 . A clean break above $3,000 would signal renewed confidence, while failure to hold $2,690 could open the door to deeper losses.
Ethereum vs. Bitcoin: Can ETH Outshine BTC?
Some analysts believe Ethereum could outperform Bitcoin in the months ahead. Cointelegraph points to a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders formation on ETH/BTC charts, suggesting a potential 80% rally in 2026 if ETH/BTC climbs to 0.059–0.063 . CoinCodex’s 365-day forecast echoes this, projecting Ethereum to gain 61% by December 2026, while Bitcoin may decline about 5% .
However, these are longer-term projections. In the short term, Ethereum’s deeper drawdown and lack of relative strength compared to Bitcoin raise caution. InvestingLive notes that while Bitcoin stabilizes near $68,800, Ethereum remains fragile, underperforming on rebounds and failing to reclaim structural resistance .
Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators
On-chain data and technical indicators suggest a cautious near-term outlook. Experts warn that despite price stability, volatility may lie ahead . BeInCrypto’s analysis underscores the importance of holding above $2,690 to avoid a bearish shift . The broader macro environment—marked by AI-driven economic fears and risk-off sentiment—continues to weigh on crypto markets .
Counterpoints and Risks
- Bearish models: ChatGPT and Claude foresee downside to $2,100–$2,400 .
- Technical resistance: ETH must overcome $3,000–$3,520 to regain momentum .
- Macro headwinds: AI fears, Fed policy, and risk-off sentiment could suppress crypto gains .
- Relative weakness: Ethereum’s deeper drawdown and underperformance versus Bitcoin suggest it may lag in recovery .
What Investors Should Watch
- Support at $2,690: Holding above this level could stabilize ETH; a break below may trigger deeper losses.
- Resistance at $3,000–$3,520: A breakout could ignite bullish momentum.
- Macro signals: Inflation data, Fed policy shifts, and risk sentiment will influence crypto direction.
- Relative strength: ETH outperforming BTC on rebounds would be a bullish signal.
Conclusion: A Month of Diverging Paths
Ethereum enters February at a pivotal juncture. Bullish forecasts envision a climb toward $2,700–$3,400, while bearish models warn of a slide toward $2,100. Technical resistance and macro uncertainty add layers of complexity. Whether ETH can outpace Bitcoin this month hinges on its ability to hold key support, break through resistance, and navigate a fragile macro backdrop.
For investors, the coming weeks will test Ethereum’s resilience. A breakout could signal renewed leadership; a breakdown may reinforce Bitcoin’s dominance. In this transitional phase, watching relative strength and technical thresholds may offer the clearest clues to what lies ahead.