Q4 Results and Immediate Outlook
Barrick’s Q4 financials were nothing short of impressive. Profit leaped 126% year‑on‑year to $1.04 per share, while revenue rose 65% to $5.99 billion—beating expectations handily. Gold output climbed by 5% sequentially to 871,000 ounces, and copper production rose 13% to 62,000 tons. A newly adopted dividend policy promises payouts equal to 50% of free cash flow; this quarter’s dividend came in at $0.42 per share, representing a 140% increase. The company also confirmed plans to spin off its North American gold business (“NewCo”) via IPO by late 2026.
Notably, despite strong earnings, the stock dipped over 7% to around $43.97 amid a pullback in gold prices. Still, Barrick remains up about 1% on the year, after an astonishing 181% surge in 2025.
Production Guidance & Financial Forecast for 2026
The company’s full‑year gold production for 2026 is forecast in the 2.90–3.25 million ounce range, compared to 3.26 million ounces in 2025. Cost guidance includes COS of $1,870–$2,070, TCC of $1,330–$1,470, and AISC of $1,760–$1,950 per ounce, based on an assumed gold price of $4,500/oz. On the copper side, production is expected at 190,000–220,000 tonnes, with AISC of $3.45–$3.75 per pound (assuming $5.50/lb).
Strategic Spin‑Off: The NewCo IPO
Battling growing complexity and aiming to unlock shareholder value, Barrick is preparing to spin off its North American gold assets—Nevada Gold Mines, Pueblo Viejo and the Fourmile discovery—via IPO by late 2026. Barrick will retain majority control of NewCo while benefiting from any upside.
Macro Tailwinds & Gold Market Forces
Gold prices have been surging—topping $5,000/oz in late January and delivering nearly 90% returns over the past year. Goldman Sachs recently upped its 2026 forecast to $5,400/oz, and analysts expect the rally to extend further. Strong macro drivers like central bank buying, rate cuts and safe‑haven demand are feeding the gold frenzy.
Barrick’s exposure to this rally is clear: surging gold boosts both margins and cash flow. The company is net‑cash positive and has significantly expanded its share buybacks and dividend payouts.
Growth-Capital Projects and Reserves Pipeline
Beyond current operations, Barrick has a powerful pipeline:
- Fourmile (Nevada): An industry-disrupting discovery with significant upside.
- Goldrush (Nevada): Scaling up toward 400,000 oz annually by 2028.
- Reko Diq (Pakistan) and Lumwana (Zambia): Copper‑gold projects expected to add significant production and value by 2028–29. Together, these projects underpin a 30%+ growth in gold‑equivalent ounces by 2029.
Risks: Costs, Production, and Mali Settlements
While gold’s rally fuels optimism, Barrick still faces headwinds. Unit costs are rising—cash costs per ounce and AISC have increased around 3% and 2% YoY, respectively, while production slipped due to the Loulo‑Gounkoto mine suspension.
That said, the Malian mine dispute has since been resolved with a $430 million settlement, paving the way for resumed operations that could add significant cash flow.
Valuation & Analyst Sentiment
Valuation remains reasonable. Barrick trades at a forward P/E of about 12–13x, either slightly below or above peer averages, depending on the source. Analysts are lifting earnings estimates for 2025–26, expecting 50%–80% YoY EPS growth.
Goldman, CIBC and others see room for stock upside. A base case range of $30–$35 is suggested, while a bull scenario (assumes higher gold, resumed operations, project ramp-up) could push the stock toward $40+.
Summary of Key Trends and Investor Takeaways
| Theme | Insight |
|——————|———|
| Earnings & Cash Flow | Record Q4 profit, strong free cash flow, strengthened dividend policy |
| Production Outlook | Slight gold output decline in 2026 vs. 2025; proactive cost guidance |
| Strategic Restructuring | North America IPO to unlock value |
| Growth Projects | Fourmile, Goldrush, Reko Diq, others to drive long-term growth |
| Macro Tailwinds | Elevated gold prices and safe-haven demand support margins |
| Risks | Rising unit costs, production disruptions, geopolitical sensitivity |
“Barrick’s ramp-up in shareholder returns and emerging project pipeline underscore its shift from volatility to strategic yield and growth.”
Conclusion
Barrick Mining’s near-term outlook is robust, anchored by stellar earnings, a shareholder-friendly dividend framework, and strong free cash flow amid solid gold prices. The planned NewCo IPO offers strategic flexibility and value unlocking. Looking ahead, long-term upside hinges on execution—with Fourmile, Goldrush, Reko Diq and other Tier One projects playing leading roles.
Yes, cost pressures and past production disruptions matter. But resolution of the Mali dispute, a cash-rich balance sheet, and operational discipline provide a bridge. If gold maintains its momentum and projects deliver, Barrick’s path toward $30–$40+ per share over the next couple of years seems plausible.
FAQs
What’s driving Barrick’s recent stock surge?
Strong Q4 earnings, soaring gold prices, and investor optimism around future dividends and growth projects are key drivers.
What is NewCo and why does it matter?
NewCo is the planned IPO of Barrick’s North American gold assets. Spinning it off could unlock shareholder value while allowing Barrick to focus on global assets.
How much gold and copper does Barrick expect to produce in 2026?
Gold: 2.90–3.25 million ounces; Copper: 190,000–220,000 tonnes—based on $4,500/oz gold and $5.50/lb copper assumptions.
Are there significant risks to Barrick’s outlook?
Rising per-ounce costs, production disruptions (e.g. Loulo‑Gounkoto), and geopolitical risks like Mali and Pakistan are key risk factors.
What long-term growth projects is Barrick investing in?
High-potential projects include Fourmile, Goldrush, Reko Diq, and Lumwana—expected to deliver substantial growth post-2028.
Could the stock reach $40+?
Analysts suggest a base case of $30–$35; a bull case assuming strong gold prices and successful project execution could push the stock to $40 or higher.