Avalanche (AVAX) is trading near $8.52 today, showing a modest 3% gain over the past 24 hours. Analysts are watching a critical resistance level at $9.60—if AVAX can break above this, a rally toward the $12–$15 range may be in play over the next 4–6 weeks.
Why This Matters Now
This moment is pivotal for AVAX. The token is hovering just below key resistance, with technical indicators showing neutral momentum. A breakout could trigger significant upside, while failure to clear resistance may lead to a pullback. The question on many traders’ minds: is a breakout imminent?
Technical Setup: Neutral Momentum, Key Levels in Focus
AVAX currently trades at around $9.17, just under its 20-day simple moving average of $9.18. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 40.45—neutral territory that leaves room for upward movement. The MACD histogram is flat, suggesting bearish momentum has stalled and may be poised to reverse.
The upper Bollinger Band stands at $10.01, marking the first technical target if AVAX breaks higher. On the downside, support lies at $8.68, with a break below that potentially exposing the lower Bollinger Band at $8.35.
Analyst Forecasts: Bullish and Bearish Scenarios
Bullish Scenario
Analysts like Darius Baruo and Zach Anderson suggest that a breakout above $9.60 could propel AVAX toward the $12–$15 range within 4–6 weeks—representing a potential 30–60% upside. Key confirmations would include a rise in RSI above 50, a positive MACD crossover, and strong trading volume.
Bearish Scenario
If AVAX fails to clear the $9.60 resistance, the token may revisit support at $8.68. A breach below that level could lead to further downside toward $8.35. Broader crypto market weakness or continued bearish momentum could reinforce this outcome.
Broader Forecasts: Mixed Medium- to Long-Term Outlook
CoinCodex projects minimal movement over the next month, with AVAX expected to remain near $9.15. Their longer-term outlook is bearish, forecasting a drop to $7.50 by the end of 2026.
In contrast, InvestingHaven offers a bullish long-term scenario, suggesting AVAX could reach $100 in 2026 if it clears key Fibonacci retracement levels. TurkishNYRadio provides a wide range of forecasts, with 2026 price estimates spanning from $39 to $90 depending on market conditions.
Institutional Momentum and On-Chain Activity
Avalanche’s ecosystem is gaining traction. A multi-year symmetrical triangle pattern, rising DeFi total value locked (TVL), and ongoing token burns are building a bullish case. On-chain volumes have surged, and institutional interest is growing, with AVAX burning and network usage picking up.
What’s Next for AVAX?
Traders and investors should watch these key levels and indicators:
- Resistance to watch: $9.60 (short-term), $10.01 (Bollinger Band), $12–$15 (medium-term target)
- Support levels: $8.68 (immediate), $8.35 (lower Bollinger Band)
- Momentum signals: RSI above 50, MACD crossover, and volume spikes
- Broader catalysts: Institutional inflows, ETF developments, and macro crypto sentiment
Conclusion
AVAX is at a technical crossroads. A breakout above $9.60 could open the door to a 30–60% rally toward $12–$15. Neutral momentum and supportive technical indicators suggest upside is possible—but failure to break resistance may lead to a pullback toward $8.68 or lower. Traders should monitor momentum shifts and volume closely. The next few weeks could define AVAX’s trajectory into mid-2026.