Ethereum Classic Price Prediction After Sudden Volume Spike – Expert Analysis

Ethereum Classic (ETC) has recently experienced a notable surge in trading activity, prompting renewed interest among traders and analysts. This article examines the causes behind the volume spike, assesses technical indicators, explores broader market context, and offers informed projections for ETC’s price trajectory.

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Ethereum Classic has seen a sharp increase in trading volume, accompanied by strong bullish momentum. This surge has triggered technical breakouts and elevated open interest, positioning ETC for potential near-term gains. However, overbought indicators and macro-driven dynamics warrant caution.

Volume Surge and Market Reaction

On July 18, 2025, ETC’s price jumped approximately 20% within 24 hours, reaching highs of $24.55—levels not seen since January 2025. This rally was powered by a dramatic spike in trading activity: open interest rose by 45% to $273 million, derivatives volume surged 300% to over $1.86 billion, and spot volume climbed 380% to more than $1.6 billion .

Similarly, in mid-July, ETC posted an 11.12% gain in a single day and a 37.95% weekly rally, buoyed by $1.08 billion in trading volume—up 230% in 24 hours. This breakout above the $21.48 resistance level was supported by rising open interest, signaling renewed trader conviction .

These volume-driven moves suggest heightened speculative interest and momentum trading, rather than fundamental developments within the Ethereum Classic ecosystem.

Technical Indicators and Chart Patterns

Technical analysis reveals several bullish signals:

• Breakouts and Patterns: ETC broke above key resistance levels—$21.48 in mid-July and $20.50–$21.00 in earlier periods—triggering bullish momentum .
• Fibonacci Extensions: A Fibonacci extension from a swing low of $13.50 to a high of $23.86 projects a 1.618 target near $29.40, supporting a potential $30 target if momentum persists .
• RSI and MACD: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed into overbought territory—around 77 in mid-July—indicating strong bullish pressure but also risk of short-term pullback . MACD shows positive divergence, reinforcing upward momentum .
• Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands: Price remains above the 20- and 50-period moving averages, with expanding Bollinger Bands signaling heightened volatility and potential consolidation ahead .

Macro Context and Market Drivers

ETC’s recent gains appear to be largely driven by broader market sentiment rather than project-specific developments. For instance, a 3.4% gain on February 21, 2026, was attributed to a U.S. Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, which lifted crypto markets broadly. ETC’s outperformance was amplified by leveraged futures trading and momentum-based speculation, not by any internal catalyst .

This pattern underscores ETC’s high beta to macro sentiment and speculative flows, making it especially responsive to broader crypto market shifts.

Price Forecast Scenarios

Short-Term Outlook (Days to Weeks)

• Bullish Scenario: If volume and momentum sustain, ETC could test the $26–$28 resistance zone, with a longer-term Fibonacci target near $29.40–$30 .
• Cautious Scenario: Overbought RSI and potential divergence in MACD suggest risk of pullback or consolidation. A drop below $22–$23 could lead to retesting support near $20–$21 .

Medium- to Long-Term Outlook (Months to Years)

• Optimistic Projection: CoinPedia forecasts ETC could reach a maximum of $55 by the end of 2025, with average prices around $40.50 .
• Extended Bull Case: If the Olympia upgrade (including EIP‑1559 fee burning and DAO governance) succeeds, ETC could see sustained upward pressure, potentially reaching $64.80 in 2026 .
• Long-Term Trajectory: CoinPedia projects ETC could reach $158.75 by 2030, assuming continued adoption and network improvements .

Analytical Insights

• Momentum vs. Fundamentals: The recent rally is clearly momentum-driven, with no fundamental catalyst from the ETC ecosystem. This increases the likelihood of volatility and reversals.
• Overbought Conditions: RSI readings near 77 and MACD divergence suggest caution. Traders should watch for signs of exhaustion or divergence as potential reversal signals.
• Macro Sensitivity: ETC’s responsiveness to macro events and leveraged trading means broader crypto sentiment will heavily influence its trajectory.
• Upgrade Potential: The upcoming Olympia upgrade could provide a structural catalyst by introducing deflationary mechanisms and decentralized governance, potentially supporting longer-term price appreciation.

Conclusion

Ethereum Classic’s recent volume-driven surge reflects speculative momentum rather than fundamental strength. In the short term, ETC could push toward $26–$28 and potentially $30 if bullish momentum persists. However, overbought indicators and lack of project-specific catalysts warrant caution, with possible consolidation or pullback toward $20–$22.

Looking ahead, the Olympia upgrade and broader adoption could support a sustained rally, with projections ranging from $55 by late 2025 to $64.80 in 2026, and even higher by 2030. Yet, these outcomes hinge on successful implementation of upgrades and favorable market conditions.

Traders should closely monitor volume trends, RSI and MACD signals, and macro sentiment to navigate ETC’s volatile trajectory.