Pagaya Stock News: Latest Price Action and Growth Outlook
Pagaya Technologies (NASDAQ: PGY) is currently trading around $14.19 as of February 10, 2026, showing a modest dip from prior levels. Analysts remain highly optimistic overall, with an average target of $39.43, indicating over 110% upside potential over the next year .
Key Drivers Behind Current Price Action
Analyst Sentiment Remains Bullish
- Analysts overwhelmingly rate Pagaya a “Strong Buy”, expecting the stock could climb more than double over 12 months, with targets ranging from $25 to $54 .
- Benchmark maintains a Buy rating with a price target of $25, citing improved liquidity and self-funding capacity after strong Q4 2024 results .
- JMP Securities reaffirmed its Outperform rating with a $26 target, citing margin improvement driven by its B2B2C model and cost controls .
Strong Financial Momentum and Profitability Trajectory
- In Q2 2025, Pagaya reported $326 million in revenue, achieving its first GAAP profit of $17 million .
- Q3 momentum continued, with forecasts for full-year 2025 revenues hitting $1.3 billion, and net income guidance raised to $72–82 million .
- Sustained profitability supports bullish sentiment and underpins higher price targets.
Structural Strength in AI-Driven Lending Platform
- Pagaya has originated over $10.4 billion in network volume by Q2 2025, up from $8 billion the prior year .
- TradingNews projects the company could grow network volume to $25 billion and revenues to $2.5 billion by 2028, while keeping adjusted EBITDA at around 20% .
Strong Technical and Market Performance Indicators
- Its Relative Strength Rating recently climbed into the low 90s, signaling robust price performance relative to peers .
- Investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic with technicals pointing to potential breakout zones.
Risks and Market Challenges to Watch
- The stock carries a beta of 2.4, indicating sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts and consumer credit cycles .
- Exposure to regulatory scrutiny, especially around AI underwriting across regions, could dampen growth .
- Funding models depend on ABS and forward-flow partnerships; any liquidity shocks or credit stress could impact stability .
Analyst Forecast Summary: Where Could PGY Head?
| Analyst Source | Rating | Target Price |
|———————————–|——————–|————–|
| Analyst Consensus | Strong Buy | $39.43 avg |
| Benchmark | Buy | $25 |
| JMP Securities | Market Outperform | $26 |
| TradingNews (Aug 2025 projection) | Buy | $28.50 |
| TradingNews Valuation Upside | — | $40–$64 range|
- TradingNews outlines potential re-rating to $40–$64 based on EBITDA and EPS growth trends .
- StockAnalysis shows analysts maintaining bullish targets, reinforcing high confidence .
Why Pagaya’s Growth Story Stands Out
- Model: Pagaya operates a capital-light, AI-powered lending platform, connecting lenders with institutional investors—no direct credit burden .
- Diversified verticals: It now spans personal, auto, and point-of-sale (POS) lending, and recently issued $300 million in BNPL-backed bonds with Klarna, broadening its product suite .
- Strategic funding partnerships: Pagaya has raised $5.5B in ABS commitments by mid-2025, and strengthened credit lines while lowering interest costs .
- AI edge: Its underwriting flywheel—processing trillions in applications—enhances predictive power and scalability .
Quoted Insight
“The stock price could double over the next year as Pagaya continues to scale volume, drive margin expansion, and deliver consistent profitability,” one equity analyst noted, underscoring confidence in the company’s trajectory.
Conclusion
Pagaya’s stock (PGY) is currently priced around $14.19, supported by a strong financial rebound and AI-powered lending model. Analysts remain overwhelmingly positive, with 12-month targets in the $25–$54 range and consensus hovering around $39. That suggests over 100% upside potential in the near term.
Its profitability, network volume growth, and partnerships in personal, auto, and POS lending validate higher valuations. Still, investors should keep an eye on macroeconomic credit risks, regulatory shifts, and funding channel stability.
If upward momentum continues and the company executes as expected, a long-term return toward the $40–$60 range is plausible. For now, banks, fintech watchers, and AI-driven lending investors will be watching closely.
FAQs
What is Pagaya’s current stock price?
As of February 10, 2026, Pagaya (PGY) trades at approximately $14.19 citeturn0finance0.
What do analysts expect from Pagaya?
Most analysts rate PGY a Strong Buy, with average price targets near $39, and individual targets ranging from $25 to $54, indicating significant upside .
Has Pagaya turned profitable?
Yes—Pagaya reported its first GAAP profit ($17M) in Q2 2025 and raised full-year net income expectations to $72–82M .
What sets Pagaya apart in fintech?
The company operates a B2B2C, capital-light model using AI underwriting. It partners with lenders instead of marketing directly to consumers, which reduces acquisition costs and improves margins .
What are the main risks for Pagaya?
Key risks include macroeconomic downturns affecting consumer credit, regulatory scrutiny of AI-based lending, and dependency on ABS and funding partnerships for asset origination .
Is Pagaya technically strong?
Yes, its relative strength has surged into the 90s, highlighting strong price momentum. However, some analysts suggest waiting for a breakout from a solid base before buying .
