Bitcoin May Have Already Bottomed Against Gold: Analyst Predicts March Recovery

Bitcoin’s relative weakness against gold may finally be nearing its nadir, with some analysts suggesting that March 2026 could mark the start of a recovery phase. Rony Szuster, Head of Research at Mercado Bitcoin, notes that historically, Bitcoin bear markets measured in gold terms last about 12–13 months—placing a potential bottom in February 2026 and a rebound in March .

A Historical Bottom in Gold Terms

Szuster’s analysis hinges on the duration of past bear markets when Bitcoin is priced against gold. He argues that if the current downturn began in early 2025, a bottom in February 2026 aligns with historical patterns. This contrasts with Bitcoin’s USD-denominated price, which may remain under pressure into late 2026 following its October 2025 peak near $126,000 .

This divergence underscores how macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions have driven capital into gold—boosting its price by over 80% to around $5,280 per ounce—while Bitcoin has lagged behind .

Extreme Undervaluation Signals

Supporting the bottoming thesis, TipRanks reports that Bitcoin’s BTC–XAU ratio Z-score has dipped below –2, marking the most significant undervaluation relative to gold on record. Historically, such extreme readings have preceded explosive rallies—like the 150% surge after November 2022 and the 1,170% rally following March 2020 .

Julius, the analyst behind the Power-Law bands model, interprets this as a strong signal that “everything points to Bitcoin massively outperforming gold over the coming months” .

Technical Oversold Conditions

Market analyst Michael van de Poppe adds another layer of conviction: Bitcoin’s RSI against gold has fallen below 30 for only the fourth time in history, a level that previously coincided with market bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2022. He suggests that gold is overvalued relative to Bitcoin, and that the current divergence may soon reverse .

Van de Poppe also notes that Bitcoin’s distance from its 20-week moving average is unusually large—another condition that has historically led to recovery rallies .

Long-Term Upside Potential

JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou offers a broader perspective on Bitcoin’s long-term upside. He points out that Bitcoin’s price has fallen well below its estimated production cost of $87,000, while gold has surged by roughly 33% since October. The bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio has dropped to a record low of 1.5, suggesting that Bitcoin is deeply undervalued on a volatility-adjusted basis. JPMorgan theorizes that, to match private-sector investment in gold (approximately $8 trillion), Bitcoin’s market cap would need to rise to a level implying a price of $266,000—though they acknowledge this is unrealistic for 2026 .

Synthesis: March as a Turning Point

Taken together, these indicators form a compelling narrative:

• Szuster’s historical timing model points to a bottom in February 2026 and recovery in March .
• TipRanks’ Z-score model signals extreme undervaluation relative to gold, historically a precursor to major rallies .
• Van de Poppe’s RSI and moving average divergence reinforce the oversold condition and potential for rebound .
• JPMorgan’s volatility-adjusted framework underscores Bitcoin’s long-term upside potential, even if not immediate .

What to Watch in March

If Bitcoin is indeed bottoming against gold, several developments could confirm the shift:

• A sustained rise in the BTC–XAU ratio Z-score above –2.
• RSI recovery above 30 in the BTC/gold pair.
• A narrowing gap between Bitcoin’s price and its 20-week moving average.
• Stabilization or reversal in spot Bitcoin ETF flows and miner production cost dynamics.

Conclusion

Multiple independent models—historical duration, statistical undervaluation, technical oversold readings, and volatility-adjusted valuation—converge on a potential inflection point for Bitcoin relative to gold in March 2026. While the USD-denominated price may remain under pressure, the gold-denominated bottom could signal the beginning of a broader recovery.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk, including the possibility of total loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.